Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 141

On September 10, Oyama Iwao, the commander-in-chief of the Japanese Manchurian Army stationed in Siping, received a telegram from the Russian army seeking peace. He quickly summoned his chief of staff, Kodama Gentaro, and senior staff officer, Iguchi Shogo, and asked them for their advice on how to respond.

After reading the telegram, Shogo Iguchi, who was in charge of logistics, breathed a sigh of relief and said, "The Russians' willingness to surrender is good news for us. At least we have more advantages at the mediation meeting in Portsmouth."

Moreover, although our army has gained the upper hand, its logistics are beginning to run out. Forcing the 300,000 to 400,000 Russian troops around Harbin to lay down their arms and surrender by force is unlikely to be successful in the short term. We should accept the Russians' willingness to lay down their arms without hesitation; dragging it out will only be detrimental to us.

After all, with the Russians defeated, the Empire's next adversary in Manchuria would be China. Our mutual attrition with Russia would allow the Chinese to reap the benefits. With the Russians conceding defeat and leaving, we could then focus all our energy on dealing with China, which would be beneficial for implementing our continental policy.

Kodama Gentaro's views were quite similar to those of Iguchi Shogo, but he also emphasized to Oyama Iwao: "This Chita Republic has close ties with the Upper Udinsk Soviet established by the Chinese. Although we do not yet have much intelligence to prove how close the connection is between the Chinese and the Chita Republic, the Chita Republic responded to the Workers' Party's proposal to sign a peace treaty that would not cede territory or pay reparations as soon as it was established. This is obviously aimed at the Empire."

The empire incurred enormous losses in this war, both in terms of casualties and financial expenditures, far exceeding those of the Sino-Japanese War. If we gained nothing from this war, the people would be the first to erupt in discontent. However, for China and Russia, a peace treaty without ceding territory or paying reparations was advantageous. The Chinese only wanted to reclaim their lost territories, while the Russians did not want to bear the responsibility for defeat. Therefore, Japan lost the moral high ground.

I believe we should take advantage of the fact that St. Petersburg needs our help and reach an agreement with the Russian government as soon as possible, so that at least the army's actions can be considered worthy of the nation's trust.

Oyama looked at Kodama but didn't say anything. He understood what Kodama meant. With the war at this point, Japan was running out of steam. Ending the war as soon as possible was the best thing for Japan. Delaying it would only cause Japan to lose the fruits of victory again.

Although in the early stages of the war, the military-controlled media touted the immense benefits Japan would gain from winning the war, these were, to the generals, nothing more than lies to deceive the public. The army's sole purpose in waging this war was to establish Japan's dominant position on the East Asian continent.

As long as Russia acknowledges this, peace can be maintained between Japan and Russia. As for conditions such as territorial concessions and reparations, they had not really hoped for them before the war. What they wanted was not Russia's territorial concessions and reparations, but to seize control of Korea and Manchuria from Russia.

However, the army's pre-war plans deviated from several objectives. The first deviation was that the government's leadership fell into the hands of the navy before the war, which made the army feel quite constrained in this war.

According to the army's pre-war plan, this should be a war between Japan and Russia, and China should not be involved. Only in this way could Japan seize Russia's interests in Manchuria. However, with the intervention of the navy, the Imperial Household and the political circles tended to use China to exhaust Russia's strength, and then let Japan decide the outcome of the war.

The second discrepancy is that China did not suffer a swift defeat in the war. The Chinese not only restrained Russia's forces but also inflicted a significant blow on Russia beyond Japan's expectations. This completely refreshed outsiders' understanding of China.

The third deviation was Japan's misjudgment of the war potential of both Russia and China. By this stage of the war, there was a widespread understanding within the army that the war potential of continental powers far surpassed that of an island nation like Japan. Had China not joined the war, the army might have been able to defeat the Russian army, but it certainly wouldn't have forced them into such a desperate situation; the credit would have gone primarily to the navy.

Through this war, the army's past continental policy had essentially failed because they had misjudged Japan's national strength and China's weakness. Even radicals like Kodama had now backed down from the idea of ​​making Manchuria a Japanese sphere of influence after the war, believing that the Korean Peninsula should be assimilated first, pro-Japanese figures should be cultivated in Manchuria, then internal strife should be sought in China, and finally, an attempt should be made to separate Manchuria from China.

However, while this policy of gradual encroachment aligned with Japan's national strength, it might not have been understood by the impatient populace. Fueled by the military's propaganda, the public had even higher expectations for this war than the Sino-Japanese War, attempting to completely crush Russia, just as they had crushed China after the Sino-Japanese War.

Once the war ends and the people realize they've been deceived, someone will obviously have to take responsibility. At this point, Oyama Iwao is actually relieved that the army isn't forming a cabinet; otherwise, he finds it hard to imagine how the army would shoulder this responsibility. Of course, if the navy is to take responsibility for not forcing Russia to satisfy the people's desires, the army also needs to show some toughness to demonstrate that it is not as weak as the navy.

Finally, the peace agreement proposed by the Workers' Party, which stipulated no territorial concessions or reparations, and the emergence of the Republic of Chita and its response to the Workers' Party, cast a shadow over how the war would end. Just as Kuropatkin considered the Republic of Chita a more pressing enemy than China and Japan, Oyama Iwao and others believed that the Republic of Chita was indeed more terrifying than St. Petersburg, because they were very worried that this republican virus would spread to China and Japan.

The war began as a territorial struggle between three imperial states, a conflict unlikely to trigger internal turmoil. However, if it escalated into a conflict between republics and empires, not only Russia and China, but even Japan would experience internal turmoil. The Japanese, who previously watched from the sidelines as China and Russia clashed, now feel the volcano beneath their own borders beginning to steam.

After much deliberation, Oyama Iwao and Kodama jointly sent a telegram to Tokyo, reporting Kuropatkin's peace request and also suggesting that Kuropatkin's request be accepted.

In their telegram, the two men stated that "the Republic of Chita is not only a rebellion against the Tsarist government, but also a threat to all imperial states. At a time when the Qing Dynasty in China is on the verge of collapse, if the Republic of Chita wins, it may lead China toward a republican path. And if China abandons its imperial system, it will have a great impact on Japan."

The joint telegram from Ōyama Iwao and Kodama Gentaro quickly reached the elders, who then held a secret meeting to discuss it. At the meeting, all the elders agreed with Ōyama Iwao and Kodama's stance on the Chita Republic, believing that the emergence of this republic was not a good thing for East Asia.

Yamagata Aritomo bluntly told the other elders, "What we need is for Tsarist Russia to relinquish its interests in the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria, not for Tsarist Russia to collapse. If such a situation were to occur, it would be a disaster for our country, because we would not be able to find a government willing to sign a peace agreement."

Hirobumi Ito supported Yamagata, and he also analyzed the situation in East Asia, saying: "The Workers' Party will inevitably become the dominant force in China after the war. This does not depend on the views of the great powers, but on the strength that Wuhan possesses."

The Qing dynasty's rule over China might soon come to an end, and China, with its thousands of years of history, might become a non-imperial state, which would be a huge ideological shock to East Asian countries. If Russia also became a republic, Japan would be isolated.

Therefore, the biggest beneficiary of this war would clearly be China. Although Japan gained control of the Korean Peninsula, its isolation by China and Russia remained unchanged. What we need is a weakened Tsarist Russia, not a republican Russia. The former's contradictions with China will not disappear, while the latter may establish new relations with China, which is clearly not our objective in launching this war.

Ito Sukeyuki agreed with Yamagata and Ito's views, but he raised a question that had troubled him for a long time to the elders: "So how exactly should we end this war? Foreign Minister Komura has been talking with the Russians in Portsmouth for seven days, but Witte has not given any positive response. Instead, he has made our demands public. Now the Russians are like victims, while we have become the perpetrators who are forcing Russia to cede interests."

Foreign Minister Komura believes that American public opinion is now quite unfriendly to the empire, and American newspapers that previously attacked Russia now mostly show sympathy for Russia and dissatisfaction with the empire.

Foreign Minister Komura believed that the goal of demanding reparations from St. Petersburg was difficult to achieve, and seeking territorial concessions from Russia was also unlikely to succeed. St. Petersburg was only willing to cede its interests in the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria, and any more would make peace impossible.

However, if peace is not achieved quickly, the international community may view my country's motives for joining the war negatively. my country is already unable to raise new funds in Europe and America, and if public opinion against my country continues to worsen, my country's government bonds issued internationally may be sold off…

Chapter 504 Breakup

The elders present fell silent at Ito Sukeyuki's question. Ito Hirobumi sighed inwardly. On the surface, Ito wanted the elders to share the responsibility for making significant concessions to Russia, but in reality, he was asking a question with another meaning.

Even before joining the war, the elder statesmen did not believe that Japan could completely defeat Russia and force Russia to sign a second Treaty of Shimonoseki with Japan, just like the Qing Dynasty. After all, Russia was a genuine white-dominated power, not a large empire like the Ottoman Empire, like the Qing Dynasty.

Unlike the naive citizens filled with illusions, the elders' goal for this war was consistently the same: to prevent Russia from completely controlling the East Asian continent, and if possible, to have Japan replace Russia's position in Manchuria. As for the fairytale of forcing St. Petersburg to completely surrender to Tokyo, no one here believed it, because the Japanese army couldn't even see the Ural Mountains; how could they possibly force St. Petersburg to submit?

Therefore, as long as Russia recognizes Japan's status on the Korean Peninsula, peace between Japan and Russia becomes possible. The only remaining issue will be how Japan and Russia divide their respective spheres of influence regarding China. Thus, although Foreign Minister Komura brought extremely demanding peace requests to the United States, these requests were merely intended to appease public sentiment and test Russia's will to war, not to genuinely negotiate peace.

As a senior elder and prime minister, Ito Sukeyuki was quite clear about the purpose of this peace talk. However, he raised the issue again in front of the senior elders, not only to reaffirm the shared responsibility, but also to see their stance on the army and navy.

Prior to this war, the rivalry between the Army and Navy had evolved from military budgets, personnel struggles, and policy differences to a higher level of ideological conflict. A fierce clash erupted between the Army's continental policy and the Navy's maritime policy regarding how the war should be conducted. Although civilian elders like Ito Hirobumi attempted to balance the Army and Navy's power, this rivalry would not have reached its current extent had Ito Sukeyuki not obtained elder status and not become Prime Minister.

Ito and the other elders were well aware that although they would support the politically weaker Navy, they would not risk completely offending Elders Yamagata and Oyama if the Navy did not have its own elders. This was because elders needed to exchange interests, and no one could claim that they did not need the support of other elders politically.

Therefore, in the army and navy budget proposals, Ito and other veterans will still ensure that the navy receives a sufficient budget, but they cannot go against Yamagata and Oyama for the sake of personnel power and political ideology in the navy. This kind of thing requires the navy's own veterans to withstand the pressure from Yamagata and Oyama, and cannot be expected from others.

It can be said that Saigo Tsugumichi's recommendation of Ito Sukeyuki to succeed him as a Genro (elder statesman) before his death truly protected the Navy from being led by the nose by the Army for the next ten or twenty years. Of course, this also exacerbated the conflict between the Army and the Navy. Since Ito Sukeyuki had succeeded as a Genro and then become Prime Minister, he had to put forward his own political ideas; otherwise, he would just be an insignificant member of the Genro and would hardly become the Navy's political representative.

In short, Ito Sukeyuki's political philosophy was to unite the forces of Asia to counter the powers outside the region. Yamagata and Oyama also had similar ideas, but Yamagata and Oyama's purpose in countering the powers outside the region was to establish Japan's dominance in East Asia, while Ito's proposition was to seek Japan to become the leader of Asian countries in countering the powers outside the region.

According to Itō, Yamagata wanted Japan to become like the Qin state, which unified the six kingdoms, while Iō wanted it to become like the Qi state, which controlled nine states. The army and navy planned the war almost entirely based on these two ideas.

Therefore, in addition to planning operations against Russia, the army also formulated plans for the complete annexation of Korea and localized operations against Manchuria. The navy, on the other hand, advocated preserving the Korean Peninsula as a buffer zone between China and Japan, and after the war, uniting with China to suppress Russian power in the Far East, and then shifting the focus of Japanese expansion to the South Pacific islands.

Hirobumi Ito believed that Saigo Tsugumichi's decision to choose Ito Sukeyuki to lead the navy before his death was indeed an excellent one. In the past, the navy could only pay lip service to the idea of ​​being the "sea master" and "land servant," but with the substantial southward expansion policy, it finally gained some real substance. Even he applauded the navy's plan, which, apart from failing to satisfy the desires of the Japanese people, had almost no major flaws.

The inability to satisfy the desires of the Japanese people was not a flaw in the naval plan, but rather a reflection of the Japanese people's lack of a great power mentality. Although the Meiji Restoration enabled Japan to defeat China, the suzerain state of East Asia for thousands of years, for the first time, and even defeated the white race in this war, the Japanese people would not become a nation with a great power mentality overnight.

In the imagination of the Japanese people, Japan is like a nouveau riche who has just acquired the status of a samurai. They are eager to sever ties with their past lowly status and show their new identity and newly acquired power to their former companions. Therefore, they will not attempt to challenge samurai who are stronger than themselves, but will instead set their sights on those who are weaker than themselves.

The navy's plan could not satisfy the Japanese people because it was trying to pit Japan against those more powerful samurai and demonstrate its power and status by protecting the weak. This idea was very un-Japanese. Only citizens of a truly great power would have this awareness of punishing the strong and helping the weak, because they have never been used to being the weak.

Seeing that the Navy had proposed and implemented such a plan, Hirobumi Ito knew that a certain young man had already established his own foothold in the Navy. Although the Navy had kept him well hidden, he knew that no one else could have come up with the idea behind the plan except for this young man, while the Army had remained completely unaware of it. This made him even less optimistic about the Army's future.

However, Ito Hirobumi, who came from the Choshu faction, did not intend to reveal anything to Yamagata. After Saigo Tsugumichi's death, the army's political influence grew too fast. During the Sino-Japanese War, the civilian faction could still suppress the military, but in the current war, the civilian faction has been marginalized. The army and navy have dominated the war, which is actually very dangerous.

After the Satsuma Rebellion, Ito Hirobumi consistently attempted to formalize Japanese politics, much like the three shoguns of the Tokugawa shogunate did, transferring power from military commanders to civil officials to establish a peaceful era under the shogunate. He also hoped to establish a peaceful era like the Meiji era, so he focused his efforts on party politics and the institutionalization of the imperial court, attempting to use rules to restrain various forces from overstepping their bounds.

However, the war posed a risk of the military's power spiraling out of control, while party politics provided the military with a channel for political expression. Ito's attempt to formalize Japanese politics was met with resistance from various quarters. His former close comrades from Choshu now became his biggest obstacle to promoting this formalization, as the military refused to be bound by the rules Ito envisioned. Yamagata, in particular, was extremely opposed to this new shogunate system, which he believed would cause the Choshu faction to lose control of the army.

The antagonism between the army and navy actually eased the political pressure on Ito. Although the navy also had considerable resistance to rule-based politics, its political ideology did not oppose the formulation of rules that everyone could accept. In Ito's view, this was a natural ally of the civilian faction. Therefore, among the elders, Ito maintained his support for Ito.

However, in order to maintain peace among the elders, Ito's support for Ito did not exceed Yamagata's tolerance level. But as the war progressed, the conflict between the army and navy was finally brought to the forefront.

When the Americans proposed mediating the war between Japan, China, and Russia, a fierce argument erupted between the Army and the Navy. The Army believed that the war was essentially a war between Japan and Russia, and that China should be excluded from the mediation meetings as much as possible. In other words, the Army advocated that China should unilaterally accept the results of the negotiations between Japan and Russia, rather than protecting its own interests in the negotiations.

The Navy, however, held a different view. They advocated that peace negotiations should be organized by Japan, China, and Russia themselves, rejecting any mediation by external powers. They argued that the negotiations should continue to ally with China to pressure Russia, establishing a Sino-Japanese alliance in East Asia, allowing China and Russia to check each other on the mainland, thus freeing up Japan's resources to expand into the southern seas.

The Navy also emphasized that the United States is Japan's rival in the Pacific. Before the Panama Canal opened, the Japanese Navy held a certain advantage in the Pacific, but once the canal was built, the Japanese Navy would lose its advantage on the west coast of the Americas. Therefore, before the Panama Canal opened, the Japanese Navy should expand its influence as much as possible into the South Pacific and the Central Pacific islands to prevent the United States from gaining a foothold in East and Southeast Asia.

According to Chief of the Naval General Staff Kawahara, "During the current window of opportunity when the United States is unable to deploy its forces in the Pacific, we should seize those vacant areas as soon as possible. We cannot repeat the mistake of the Hawaiian Islands, where we clearly had the advantage on the islands, but were instead tied down by the Sino-Japanese War, which led to the Hawaiian Islands falling into the hands of the Americans."

The current situation is that Britain is losing ground in India, and to ensure the security of the Indian Ocean, the British are shifting their power from East Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific region back to the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean. France, under pressure from Germany, is finding it even more difficult to channel its power to Southeast Asia.

Therefore, the only countries currently preventing our expansion in Southeast Asia are the Netherlands and the United States. It is impossible for Britain and France to engage in conflict with the empire over the South Pacific islands. The French made concessions in the Battle of Cam Ranh Bay, and Britain did not show strong opposition when we entered Mindanao Island, which has already proven that Britain and France are capable of making concessions in the South Pacific region.

Wasting energy on the mainland at this point would be a net loss. Even if we defeated Russia, for a vast empire with three times the population of ours, Russia's defeat in this war would result in a greater loss of its own reputation than its war potential. Even if we forced Russia to cede the land east of Lake Baikal, it wouldn't change the fact that Russia remains one of the great powers. Japan, even if it drained its entire population, couldn't hold onto the land east of Transbaikal.

Not to mention, China, the original power in East Asia, is not dead. In this war, this continental nation has shown hope for revival. If Japan wants to intervene in the struggle for hegemony in East Asia, it will be caught between the two major powers of China and Russia, ground to dust, and gain nothing…

Chapter 505 The Cornerstone of Meiji Japan

After much deliberation, Hirobumi Ito finally stepped forward to mediate the differences between the army and navy. "What Prime Minister Ito said is true. The United States intervened to mediate the war at this juncture because, on the one hand, Britain and the United States did not want the Russians to lose too badly and thus completely withdraw from the Far East; on the other hand, they also wanted to contain the Empire. As long as the conflicts in the Far East still exist, the Empire will not be able to be distracted by interfering in the affairs of the Americas. In this way, the Americas will be much more peaceful before the Panama Canal is built."

The reason we accepted the American mediation was that the empire's national strength had been mobilized to the limit, and at present, the only foreign banks capable of lending to the empire were American bankers. If we did not accept the American mediation, then as long as the Americans cut off the loans to the empire and prohibited the export of steel to the empire, we would not be able to continue the war.

Therefore, considering the domestic and international situation, this war has reached its end. What we need to consider now is how to rebuild the order in Northeast Asia. We are well aware that the origin of this war lies in the Russian attempt to monopolize the interests of Northeast Asia, which aroused the dissatisfaction of various countries. It was with the support of these countries that Russia was isolated in this war, thus giving the empire the opportunity to win.

Therefore, in rebuilding the post-war order in Northeast Asia, the Empire should fully consider the interests of all nations to avoid falling into the same predicament as Russia. With this in mind, whether the Russians were willing to make reparations to the Empire was secondary; the key to whether other nations would continue to support the Empire lay in how the interests of Northeast Asia were distributed.

The other elders turned their attention to Yamagata. Ito Hirobumi's words were actually meant to get the army to make concessions on its continental policy. If the army made concessions, it would mean that the navy's maritime policy had won. But would the army really give up so easily?

Yamagata, of course, refused. The army opposed Russia's foreign policy of monopolizing Manchuria, Outer Mongolia, and the Korean Peninsula because this was also the army's goal. Although the empire had defeated Russia with the support of various countries, it was unwilling to hand over the benefits it had gained to share with other countries.

He first glanced at the elders in the room before saying blankly, "The Empire paid so many lives and money to defeat the Russians. Why should other countries share the interests of the Korean Peninsula and Manchuria with the Empire?"

Moreover, the so-called policy of isolating Russia by various countries is nothing more than sitting on the sidelines and watching the tigers fight. Most of the money we use for the war comes from the contributions of our people, and less than a third of it is public debt issued overseas, which will have to be repaid by our people in the future.

In other words, the countries did almost nothing in this war; they merely supported us in the newspapers and earned interest on loans to us, yet now they want to take away the fruits of victory. Don't you find this absurd? I can't even understand this outcome, so how do you intend to make the people accept it?"

The elder statesmen were equally speechless in the face of Yamagata's question. If the Russians could not make reparations to the Empire, then the only thing they could use to appease the national sentiment was the benefits they could obtain from Korea and China. If even that was not the case, then for whom was this war being fought? A slogan of "Down with Russian oppression of Japan" could not make the heavily indebted people accept this outcome peacefully.

While the elders remained silent, Yamagata turned his gaze to Ito and asked, "What are the Navy's thoughts on Port Arthur and Vladivostok? Does the Navy believe that these two ports should be returned to China? If so, can the Navy guarantee that China will not develop its navy and challenge the Empire's maritime power in the East?"

Ito Sukeyuki blurted out, "Both of these ports belong to Russia, so why should they be returned to China?"

Yamagata replied bluntly: "All countries recognize China's legitimate sovereignty over Manchuria. The Kwantung Leased Territory was merely leased by Russia from China. Legally speaking, as the victor in this war, China has the right to reclaim the Chinese Eastern Railway, the South Manchurian Railway, and the Kwantung Leased Territory."

Judging from the statement issued in Wuhan, the Chinese people do not recognize the treaty with Russia that ceded territory and paid reparations. The so-called signing of an equal treaty with the Russian people that does not involve ceding territory or paying reparations does not mean that they agree with the previous unequal treaties between China and Russia. Rather, it means that they want to overthrow all the previous unequal treaties and sign a truly equal treaty.

Judging from Wuhan's statement, if Wuhan truly gained control of China, then that China would inevitably become an enemy of the empire, as they would certainly seek to abolish the Treaty of Shimonoseki. Therefore, to maintain friendly relations between Japan and China, it was necessary to prevent Wuhan from taking control of China.

How to prevent Wuhan from taking control of China? First, it's necessary to prevent Wuhan from establishing closer ties with other countries. Since its emergence, Wuhan has built a network of international connections centered on trade and economics by attracting foreign investment and expanding foreign trade. The ties with Germany were the closest; the Wuhan army's ability to storm the Trans-Siberian Railway was inextricably linked to the technology provided by the Germans.

Therefore, after China reclaimed Manchuria, Wuhan would inevitably extend its influence into the region, and the Chinese, as the landowners, would quickly gain control of it. If the Chinese developed Manchuria in the same way they developed Wuhan, Japan would not benefit, and China, with German support, would not accept the Empire's occupation of Kwantung Leased Territory, the Korean Peninsula, and Vladivostok.

This would mean a war between the empire and China. If China won, it would re-establish its former dominance in East Asia. What would Japan do then?

Ito lost the will to refute Yamagata, because what Yamagata was saying was not his own opinion, but rather the mainstream view of the pioneers of the anti-shogunate period. During the First Opium War, Japan's samurai elites advocated uniting with China against Western barbarians; at that time, Japan was still within the framework of a Chinese worldview.

However, by the time of the Second Opium War, the Japanese samurai elites believed that China was no longer the China of history, because this China had lost the ability to expel the barbarians. In the past, they had only secretly cursed the Manchus for turning China into a barbarian nation, but now they openly declared that the Manchu conquest of China had caused a transformation of the Chinese and barbarians, and that Chinese civilization was in Japan, not in China. This was the reason for the anti-shogunate faction's righteous cause of expelling the barbarians.

In other words, the anti-shogunate faction was able to rally feudal lords across the land to overthrow the shogunate because they positioned themselves on the foundation of preserving Chinese civilization. The shogunate's refusal to expel foreigners was seen as an attempt to bring Western barbarians into China, trying to replicate the Manchu conquest and destroy the last vestiges of Chinese civilization. Because the anti-shogunate faction held such a righteous cause, Emperor Komei, despite his attempts to maintain the shogunate system, could not suppress the alliance of these anti-shogunate forces. Under the banner of Chinese legitimacy, even the emperor had to step aside.

After the victory of the anti-shogunate faction, some people genuinely believed in the myth of Chinese orthodoxy in Japan. Therefore, they advocated continuing the expulsion of foreigners, not only in Japan but also in Korea and China, ultimately replacing the Manchu Qing dynasty as the master of China. Others, after studying in Europe, believed that Western civilization was already superior to Eastern civilization and argued that there was no need to inherit any Chinese orthodoxy. They believed Japan should absorb Western civilization, rise to prominence in East Asia, and establish a new Japan.

In the Satsuma Rebellion, the anti-foreign faction suffered a complete defeat, while the opening-up faction emerged victorious. However, this victory was not thorough. Consequently, those who advocated for the orthodoxy of Chinese culture in Japan and those who advocated for absorbing Western civilization to build a new Japan began to converge, and Japan's national consciousness began to become distorted.

However, one point was agreed upon by the Japanese leadership: under no circumstances should China be allowed to rise again. Whether it was to steal the orthodox Chinese tradition to replace China's suzerain status in East Asia, or to absorb Western civilization to build a new Japan that would soar in East Asia, China should not be allowed to return to its historical position.

Yamagata's strategy against Ito and Itō was based on this shared understanding. If China were to return to its historical position, both naval maritime policy and the vision of an Asian alliance would fail, because such a China would not be subordinate to Japan within the alliance. Yamagata and Itō couldn't even share the leadership of the Choshu faction; how could China and Japan possibly be expected to be on good terms within an Asian alliance?

The meeting of the elders quickly reached a dead end. They could neither force Russia to cede enough interests to satisfy the vanity of the people, nor could they give up their interests in the Korean Peninsula, Manchuria, and other places to establish an East Asian order that was favorable to Japan. So Japan could only move forward with the help of the times, after all, the Japanese are best at accepting reality.

When the Japanese leadership was unable to reach a definitive conclusion on ending the war, reports from the United States on September 14th regarding the mediation conference finally ignited Chinese anger. As the victors in the war, the Chinese held high hopes for the mediation conference. Most were not trying to gain anything from the Russians, but simply wanted Russian troops to leave Chinese territory and the abolition of the privileges Russia enjoyed in China—rights that China had come to understand as rightful to the victorious powers after its doors were opened to the world.

Because the Chinese generally believed they were entitled to the treatment of a victorious nation, they considered the Workers' Party's statement superfluous. The so-called equal treaty with the Russian people, promising no territorial concessions or reparations, seemed to harm China's interests. Logically, since China had achieved victory, it could naturally demand territorial concessions and reparations from Russia. Although the court might abandon these demands given its capabilities, they should still be used as bargaining chips in negotiations to recover China's lost interests.

Therefore, when Yuan Shikai pushed for sending a delegation to the United States to participate in the mediation conference, he unusually gained the support of the majority of the public, who believed that Yuan's proposal was "a mature and wise approach to governing the country, and that the Workers' Party was still too naive in foreign relations."

However, when the reports about the Portsmouth Conference on September 14th were translated and reached China, the Chinese realized how naive they had been. During the negotiations, Japan and Russia had not even discussed the treatment China, as a victorious nation, should receive. Aside from Japan's demand for Russia to pay an exorbitant indemnity equivalent to the 5 billion gold francs France paid in the Franco-Prussian War, which was unrelated to China, Japan's demands for Russia to withdraw its troops from the Korean Peninsula and transfer control of the Kwantung Peninsula, the South Manchurian Railway, Primorsky Krai, Sakhalin Island, and the Chinese Eastern Railway line east of Harbin—almost all of these conditions harmed China's interests.

The National Daily commented, "This is a case of one robber demanding the transfer of a kidnapped tycoon from another, not a righteous action by the police to crack down on robbers and rescue kidnapped persons."

The Chinese people began to urge Yuan Shikai to verify the authenticity of these reports, demanding that he explain whether he was aware of Japan's demands on Russia before sending his ambassador to the United States to the conference, and also asking him to state his position on the mediation meeting. Suddenly, Yuan Shikai, who had just risen to prominence, was brought crashing down again.

Chapter 506 Financial Crisis

9月14日，联合铜业股价从39美元上升到了52美元。9月15日，联合铜业股价上升至60美元。联合铜业的老板弗里茨·海因策认为是时候对空头进行“逼空”行动了。

From the beginning of the year to September, the Heinze brothers and Charles Morse, the "Ice King," orchestrated a scheme to inflate the share price of Union Copper. Their methods were crude: they used banks and trust companies under their control to pledge their shares and then used the funds to boost Union Copper's stock price.

Short sellers borrowed large amounts of stock from the market to raise funds, then bought back the stock to repay the borrowed funds when the price fell. The end of the Far East War meant that copper prices had peaked, and Heinz and Morse believed that most of the stock on the market was already in their hands. They argued that the short sellers wouldn't be able to get enough stock to repay the borrowed shares, so they forced the short sellers to close their positions and return the United Copper shares they had previously "borrowed." This would force the short sellers to fill the market gap, further stimulating the stock price to rise, and ultimately, both money and stocks would become their spoils.

Ice King Morse had used this trick to great effect in his ice-making business in New York and in manipulating canal stocks, so he did not think he would lose, because theoretically the short sellers would not be able to find enough shares to return in the market and would have to watch their assets be wiped out.

However, to the surprise of the Heinze brothers and Morse, when they set their sights on the assets of those shorting United Copper, another financial giant, JPMorgan, also set its sights on them. Fritz Heinze had offended JPMorgan in the copper mining business, but JPMorgan was powerless against him for the time being. After all, the Morgan Group was good at the financial industry rather than the real industry. Even JPMorgan could not easily defeat Heinze in the copper mining business.

However, the Heinze brothers' decision to come to Wall Street to play the financial game was tantamount to walking into a trap. JPMorgan intended to settle accounts with the Heinze brothers and recoup its losses in the copper mining business in one go. So, when the Heinze brothers and Morse began their short squeeze, they encountered an unbelievable situation: the securities firms refused to force the short sellers to liquidate their positions. In other words, the short squeeze was stopped by a force outside the rules.

Startled, the short sellers immediately launched a counterattack, publicizing in the media that the Heinze brothers had pledged a large number of shares to banks and trust companies at high prices, creating distrust among depositors towards these institutions and forcing the Heinze brothers to sell shares on the market to raise funds to repay the mortgage loans.

Thus, what was originally a financial war between Morgan and the Heinz brothers quickly turned into a war between American depositors and banks and trust companies. In the past one or two decades, there have been numerous cases of people like the Heinz brothers and Morse using bank and trust company funds to speculate in stocks without following the rules. When Morgan was involved in U.S. Steel, he didn't use his own money either. Now, the American financial industry is going to pay the price for its previous prosperity.

With Morgan Stanley's intervention and the onslaught of massive speculative capital, United Copper's stock plummeted to $10 on September 18th. While the Heinze brothers were undoubtedly bankrupt, the most alarming development was the escalating corruption within banks and trust companies. American depositors began withdrawing large amounts of their funds from banks and trust companies, forcing these entities to continue withdrawing capital, further driving down the stock prices of other companies.

The American wealth game seems to have come to an end, a situation that neither the Heinze brothers nor JPMorgan had anticipated. The crisis that erupted on Wall Street quickly spread around the world. First, American bankers suspended loan negotiations with China and Japan. Second, British and French investors began withdrawing funds from the US stock market.

On September 20, Korekiyo Takahashi, who was negotiating the loan in New York, sent a telegram to Tokyo stating, "The issuance of 300 million yen in government bonds in the United States is no longer possible. Fortunately, the issuance of 100 million yen of these bonds has already been completed. However, the US market is not suitable for issuing any new bonds in the short term. The recent stock market crash of United Copper has left Wall Street bankers in a state of utter distress."

If domestic fundraising is still needed, then the next step will have to be to go to Europe. However, to issue government bonds in Europe, one must politically comply with the instructions of Britain and France.

British and French banks had long provided Russia with long-term loans, so they believed it was inappropriate to demand high war reparations from Russia. Furthermore, even if Russia were to pay reparations, it did not necessarily have to pay in cash; it could use government bonds instead. The government bonds accepted by Japan could be exchanged for cash in London and Paris.

However, in that case, if Russia cannot repay its public debts, Japan will be jointly liable for compensation…

However, it is clear that the Japanese government would not dare to accept Russia paying the reparations with its public debts, because they did not believe that Japan had the ability to force Russia to repay its public debts. In the end, it would only result in Japan having a new loan from Britain and France, and Japan obviously did not have the ability to default on its debts to Britain and France.

The war could not continue. The actions of Britain, France, and the United States in this war, which aimed to both strike at Russia and gain benefits from Japan, made the Japanese ruling class even more resistant to the entry of other countries into Northeast Asia. They believed that if these Western powers entered Northeast Asia, they would inevitably exclude Japanese interests, so it was better to refuse them entry into their sphere of influence now.

The Ito cabinet began to signal domestically that the war was due to end, and used the peace agreement proposed in Wuhan—one that would not involve territorial concessions or reparations—to test public acceptance. However, this quickly sparked public discontent, with many believing that Foreign Minister Komura would be a traitor if he agreed to sign such a peace agreement in the United States.

However, what disgusted Ito Sukeyuki was that while he was trying to lower the public's expectations, the army was undermining him. A group of army generals, led by Terauchi, openly criticized the cabinet in the newspapers, arguing that the Imperial Army had fought so hard on the battlefield and achieved such great victories, but the cabinet was trying to erase the sacrifices of the Imperial Army, which was an intolerable act of weakness for the Imperial Army.

The victory in this war was essentially a naval victory. Although the army defeated the Russian army on the mainland, it was the Chinese who truly cornered the Russian army in Manchuria. The only thing the army could boast about was its heavy casualties. Because of the large number of army deaths, the army wanted to claim the spoils of the war for itself. Wasn't this a blatant attempt to seize the fruits of the naval victory?

While Terauchi and others' tough stance in the newspapers certainly won the hearts of the people, what good is a tough stance in the newspapers when the army can't even take Harbin on the battlefield? If the army could defeat Moscow, criticizing the cabinet for being weak would be understandable, but the army can't even take Harbin, yet it acts arrogantly domestically, which is tantamount to forcing the cabinet to resign.

Ito Sukeyuki realized that he had overestimated Yamagata's moral standards. Could Yamagata really be unaware of these army generals' statements? And Yamagata, knowing full well that the compromise with Russia was a last resort, actually allowed these army generals to attack the cabinet. This was clearly an attempt to draw public resentment to himself.

He felt he couldn't bear the blame for this. Although the palace and the elders knew why they had to compromise with Russia, the general public was clearly unaware of the inside story. The army was clearly trying to ruin his reputation. In this way, all the prestige he had gained in this war would vanish, and he would have to look up to Yamagata among the elders in the future.

While Ito Sukeyuki was grappling with his troubles, Hayashi Shin-yi was on his way back to Wuhan. Over the past two weeks, he had accompanied representatives of the Indian Labour Party, Japanese socialists, and Vietnamese national independence activists on a survey of Wuhan's industrial and agricultural development and military and political organization. This survey primarily focused on the Jianghan Plain and Nanyang, and although the scope was not extensive, the results were quite positive.

After several years of development, a relatively close industrial and agricultural exchange relationship has been established between the Jianghan Plain and Wuhan. The proportion of commodities on the Jianghan Plain has begun to rise significantly, and the flow of industrial products to the countryside has greatly promoted the infrastructure construction of the Jianghan Plain. For example, the area of ​​farmland irrigated by electric power has increased from zero to more than 200,000 mu, the annual construction mileage of highways and bridges is more than ten times that before 1900, and water conservancy construction has been planned from villages to areas above the county level.

The most direct benefit of the infrastructure development in this region is that the grain output of the Jianghan Plain this year is expected to reach about 18 billion jin, almost double the grain output of 1902. The reduction in transportation costs brought about by infrastructure development has not only increased agricultural output but also boosted rural incomes. Therefore, what the delegation saw during their visit was a vibrant and thriving countryside, which greatly pleased the members. They all felt that the villages on the Jianghan Plain were exactly what they hoped to see in their own hometowns, and that everything was developing in a positive direction.